Common Poker Leaks – Not Drawing To The Nuts

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I see many players involved in huge pots when they have drawing hands that aren’t drawing to the best hand. The reverse implied odds involved in these type of hands are huge. Basically reverse implied odds factor in how much money you could lose when you make your hand.

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Flopping a huge draw and getting it all in is all good and well if you’re drawing to the nuts because you know if you hit your hand you win the pot. However, when you’re not drawing to the nuts you can hit your hand and lose the pot, sometimes lose a bigger pot (if you aren’t all in).

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You must proceed with caution with these type of hands and it is oftentimes best to just fold unless you have a very good handle on your opponent’s tendencies and are a proficient hand reader. If not there is too much of a chance that you will lose a huge pot when you make your hand.

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Common Poker Leaks – Quitting At The Wrong Time

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Another big poker leak that is often overlooked is quitting at the wrong time. New players often want to quit when they’re up in an effort to ‘book a winning session’.

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This may seem fine but you must ask yourself why you are wining. If you’re playing well and the game is good the last thing you should be thinking about is leaving.

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Whereas if you’re playing poorly and the game is not-so-good, standing up is the only thing you should be doing.

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Clearly your results are somewhat irrelevant in determining when you should be quitting a game. There are much more important factors to be considered.

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Common Poker Leaks – Playing Too Tight

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Psychology and Gambling LossesEarlier we looked at calling too much. Playing too tight can also be a big leak in poker.

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You will often here new players being advised to play tight, straightforward poker. There is nothing wrong with that, but if you play too tight then you will make no money.

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Your opponents will fold everything as they will know you have the nuts. Either that or they will call in the early stages of the hand to outdraw you and you will lose a huge pot with your obvious monster.

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Common Poker Leaks – Tilt

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Tilt may not be the most common poker leak but it can certainly be the most detrimental.  Tilt causes you to play badly through anger.

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Many very good players have gone broke due to tilt numerous times over. Identifying it and erasing it from your game is vital. Tilt is 100% mental and definitely controllable.

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 Many players control tilt in different ways. Sometimes taking a five minute breather after a rough hand is enough, others may need to take the rest of the day off.

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The most important thing though is to never play tilted – no matter how long it takes to recover back to a normal state..

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Find Common Poker Leaks – Calling Too Much

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Calling too much is by far the most common poker leak, in fact it’s such a big leak that it can be broken down into two sections.

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First of all calling too much at the beginning of the hand. A lot of players will call with a lot of trash hands pre-flop when really they know they should be folding or possibly even be re-raising. This is a trait of a really weak player. Your hand is not the only thing you need to consider here either. Your position and opponents are both determining factors in whether you should play a hand or not and calling too much at times when you are in a bad position or up against tough opponents is a leak. Folding more of these hands will save you way more money in the long run than any pots you may rake in with these hands when played.

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Second of all is calling too much later in the hand – more specifically the river. Many players will call lots of times on the river ‘knowing they’re beat’ they will oftentimes verbalise that they know they’re beat in an attempt to justify their bad play. We all know the saying – two wrongs don’t make a right and it definitely holds up in this context.

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There are many reasons a player calls on the river with a weak holding. Sometimes it is to see if they were right or fear of being shown a bluff. Maybe even just to show that they have been outdrawn. Whatever the reason is, it’s not a good one. The ability to lay down big hands when you know you’re beat is one that needs to be learned quickly and will save you a lot of money when done.

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Common Poker Mistakes - How Simple Leaks Can Affect Your Profits

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Fix These Leaks Today And Increase Your Winrate

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royal flushAll of us have leaks in our game somewhere. The sooner you identify them the sooner you can work at plugging these leaks that are costing you money.

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This article will go over some of the most common poker leaks. I will be surprised if you can honestly say nothing on this list applies to you.

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Honesty is key here, identifying and working on leaks will improve your game – pretending you don’t have any won’t.

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IMPORTANT CAVEAT how to use math to beat the bookies

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At the end of the day, these 6 tips can help novice and experienced bettors alike in figuring out which games to wager a draw on.

BUT BUT BUT… listen up. Research has shown that:

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“Knowledge of the game is NOT an advantage in sports gambling.”
I didn’t make that up. That’s the conclusion in a 2013 scientific research paper by Prof. Dannon and Dr. Huberfeld at Israel’s Tel Aviv University.

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The scientists proved that “neither betting experience nor knowledge of the details of the game provides an advantage to strategic sports gamblers.”

Wow, what the heck does all this mean?

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Do you Have multiple bookmakers?

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If you aren’t already aware, bookmakers have a built-in “House Advantage” in their odds. Most bookies give themselves around 5% profit margin. This means that on average, they stand to win about $5 on every $100 that their customers bet.

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Having multiple bookmakers allow you to choose the best odds for each game, bringing the House Advantage down to 1.5% or lower. Now you only need to be slightly smarter than the House to turn a profit.

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Please Look out for close “Home” and “Away” odds

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This may seem obvious enough, but tends to be neglected. Especially useful for beginners who have little to no knowledge of soccer. How do you spot games that will finish all even? Well, look out for matches where the market can’t seem to decide who’s going to come out victorious. In this case, the odds for both teams to win will be pretty close, with neither a Home Win nor Away Win dipping below 2.0.

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This is usually the first step I teach my clients and readers of my betting system book. It’s easy to be overwhelmed by the hundreds of matches on offer daily. So when you are short of time and don’t have hours to spend on match analysis, simply filter out potential draws using this step (time needed: 30 seconds).

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Ho can Look out for mid-table teams at the end of the season

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In some lower-tier leagues, teams are notorious for covert (or even blatant) match-fixing. These tend to occur toward the end of the season when there’s nothing left to play for. For teams that are comfortably positioned in mid-table (not fighting for European qualifications or struggling against relegation), the motivation is all but lost. Some of the star players may just be looking to avoid injuries as they have an eye on a high profile transfer in the new season.

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The temptation to “throw away” games is even present in certain top flight leagues. Italy tend to have that reputation as being a hot bed for match-fixing.

Regardless of the presence of dirty tricks or manipulation, look out for mid-table teams at the end of the season. Specifically, look out for games between two teams who BOTH have nothing much at stake to play for.

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We Can Look out for weaker teams playing at home

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Weak(er) teams playing at home are often happy to settle for a draw. Especially at home grounds that are notoriously difficult for even the strongest of away teams.

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Don’t neglect the marginal advantage playing on home soil brings. Whenever you check the current form and league table, make sure you sort the data according to “Home” and “Away” performances. I like to pay attention to their respective Home/Away Goal Difference too.

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Do the same when checking out the past results history between the two teams.

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Focus on those “special” leagues and teams

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As I have alluded to in the past, certain soccer/football leagues in the world have a higher propensity for draws. Don’t be mistaken, these out-of-the-ordinary leagues (and teams) change every season. So do not treat historical data as the gospel!

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In fact, trends may change halfway through the season. Especially after mid-season signings in the January transfer window and managerial changes. Whenever a team goes on an incredible run of draws and then fire the manager, do NOT assume the same trend will continue with a new manager. Always observe what happens in the new coach’s first few games in charge.

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Can You Look at the odds for Under 2.5 Goals

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Sure, the first thing we all do when looking for potential draws to bet on is to look at the 1X2 odds. The lower the odds for a draw, the higher the possibility of it happening. At least the implied probability according to the bookies. But take into consideration the odds for *Under 2.5 goals* as well. It’s a pretty good signal for low-scoring games. IDN POKER

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Statistically, soccer matches that are low-scoring are much more likely to end up in draws. And in the long run, you will increase your winning ratio by focusing on games that are going to have less goals.

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How to Developing a Profitable Soccer Betting System

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Over the past year, I have led an exclusive group of soccer bettors to beat the bookies by betting on draws in various football leagues around the world. European, Asian, South American football leagues… you name it. All we do is bet on draws! IDN POKER

Using my uniquely formulated soccer betting system, we have consistently made unprecedented levels of profits. In terms of ROI, it’s simply CRAZY.

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Armed with the single-minded focus of predicting draws, we have developed a truly profitable soccer betting system based entirely on draws. Here’s a glimpse of how we ended a good week of betting with a net profit of $1,308.

In my book, I go into details about why I ONLY bet on draws (1X2 betting) out of dozens of betting options. But suffice to say, you may already have some hints of how profitable it can be — if you have arrived on this page via Google Search. Mathematical David Sumpter goes as far as to say that backing draws was “the main source of [his] profits”, calling it a bias in the market.

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So back to the purpose of this article. Along the way, my team and I have discovered certain reliable patterns that you must know if you want to predict draw results in soccer. What are some important “red flags” when it comes to spotting a potential match that is going to end up in a tie?